U.S. Fertility Rate Hits Another Record Low: What Are Couples Waiting For?

The news

This week (October 21), NBC News reported on the CDC’s final report on 2025 births: the U.S. fertility rate fell to about 53 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, down from nearly 54 the year before — another record low. A century ago, the rate was double what it is now.

The CDC’s own provisional data, released in April, had already pointed the way: 3,606,400 births in 2025, a 1% decline, with the birth rate for teenagers ages 15–19 down 7% to 11.7 per 1,000 — another record low, according to the NCHS press release. At the same time, birth rates rose among women ages 30 to 44. Researchers quoted in the coverage say many women are waiting for financial stability, education, career — and marriage — before having a first child.

An honest caveat: a fertility rate is a national average. It doesn’t tell the story of any single family, and fewer teen pregnancies is, by any measure, good news.

The decline that’s good and the decline that worries me

I want to start with what’s good, because this story isn’t only a lament. Fewer teenagers getting pregnant means fewer young girls carrying, alone and far too early, a weight that was meant to be carried by two people committed to each other. And more children being born after 30, often within marriage, is not a tragedy either.

What makes me pause is something else. When you read the reasons — waiting for stability, waiting for the career, waiting for the right moment — one word keeps showing up, the same word I hear all the time when I talk with couples: security. And the question I ask myself is: security in what?

I’m not saying planning is a sin. Planning is wisdom. Jesus himself talked about counting the cost before building the tower. The problem starts when “waiting for the right time” quietly turns into “waiting until I’m no longer afraid.” Because that moment never comes.

The wind will never stop blowing

There’s a verse in Ecclesiastes that sounds like it was written for our generation:

“Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap.” (Ecclesiastes 11:4, NIV)

There will always be wind. There will always be a cloud on the horizon: the economy, the rent, the promotion that hasn’t come yet, the doubt about whether the marriage will hold. And I understand that fear, because I was once the problem in my own marriage. I know what it’s like to look at your own home and not be sure the floor will hold.

But that’s exactly where I learned that a home’s security doesn’t come from a bank account or a job title. It comes from the foundation. A couple can have everything in place on the outside and be cracked on the inside. And they can have very little on the outside and stand firm, because they decided to build on the rock.

“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.” (Matthew 6:34, NIV)

Jesus doesn’t tell us to be careless about tomorrow. He tells us not to be ruled by our anxiety about tomorrow.

Children don’t fix a marriage — but a strong marriage welcomes children

I need to be direct here, because I’ve seen couples get this wrong in both directions.

Some couples think a baby will “save” the relationship. It won’t. A child is not glue for a cracked marriage; a child is a life that needs a whole home. If you’re in crisis, the first step isn’t growing the family — it’s caring for the covenant.

And some couples postpone indefinitely because, deep down, they don’t trust their own marriage. It isn’t the economy that scares them; it’s the doubt about whether the other person will still be there ten years from now. That’s serious, and the answer is not to have a baby to prove something. The answer is to deal with the root: rebuild trust, brick by brick, until the house is strong enough to welcome someone new.

In both cases, the real issue isn’t fertility. It’s foundation.

“Children are a heritage from the LORD, offspring a reward from him.” (Psalm 127:3, NIV)

Notice that the same psalm opens with: “Unless the LORD builds the house, the builders labor in vain” (Psalm 127:1, NIV). Before he talks about children, the psalmist talks about who is building the house. The order matters.

A word for those who want children and can’t

I can’t write about this without thinking of so many couples we’ve walked with who deeply want a child but face infertility, pregnancy loss, a wait that hurts. If that’s you, this article is not pressure. You are not a data point among those who “chose to wait.” Your marriage has worth before God with or without children, and He sees your pain. Seek trustworthy medical care, and don’t carry this alone — or apart from your church.

And where is the church in all this?

The numbers point to something else, too: the fewer families with young children there are, the lonelier it becomes to raise kids. The mom with no one to share the 2 a.m. feeding with. The dad who doesn’t know another dad to talk to.

The church can be the most concrete answer to that. Not with speeches about birth rates, but with presence: older couples who adopt younger ones, small groups that show up after a baby arrives, men who walk alongside other men on the journey of fatherhood. When a couple knows they won’t be raising children alone, fear loses some of its grip.

What I’d tell you today

If you’re thinking about children and fear is talking louder than faith, talk about it honestly. Ask each other: “What exactly are we waiting for?” Sometimes the answer is legitimate and wise. Sometimes it’s just the wind.

And if that conversation reveals that the problem isn’t the timing but the foundation of your marriage, start there. Caring for your covenant is the best gift you can give to the children you already have and to the ones who may still come.

If you want more practical encouragement for building that foundation together, Vanessa Lima and I share it every week on the O Casal Legendário YouTube channel and on Instagram — come walk with us.