U.S. Divorce Rate Keeps Falling: What the New CDC Numbers Say to Your Marriage

The news

Last Tuesday (October 14), Axios published an analysis of the latest marriage and divorce data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. In 2024, the U.S. marriage rate rose to 6.3 per 1,000 people, slightly above the 6.1 of 2019, before the pandemic. Meanwhile, the divorce rate fell to 2.3 per 1,000 — down from 2.4 in 2023 and 4.0 in 2000, according to the CDC’s own tables.

Axios points out that part of the decline is simply because fewer Americans are married to begin with. But that doesn’t explain all of it: by the outlet’s own analysis of CDC and Census data, the annual divorce rate among married Americans dropped from roughly 19 per 1,000 in 2008 to about 13 in 2024. And the widely predicted post-lockdown divorce wave never materialized nationally.

An honest caveat: the CDC counts are provisional, and the divorce series leaves out a handful of states (including California and Hawaii). The rate among married people is Axios’s own calculation. These are real trends, not a perfect snapshot.

Good news — with a “yes, but”

I’ll admit I enjoyed reading that headline. We spend so much time hearing that “marriage is dead,” that “half of all marriages fail,” that “nobody stays together anymore,” that a story saying the opposite almost sounds strange.

But I don’t want to celebrate too fast. The article itself shows both sides: Americans still marry far less than they did twenty years ago. In 2000 there were 8.2 marriages per 1,000 people; today there are 6.3. Fewer divorces in a country where fewer people marry is not, by itself, a sign of a family revival.

Still, one line caught my attention, and it applies to you, right where you live. The article’s bottom line is that people who say “I do” today might be making that choice more deliberately — and, once married, they divorce at lower rates.

In other words: the decision matters. How you walk into marriage shapes how you walk through it.

Marry on purpose, not by drift

Jesus told a story every couple should reread before the altar and after it:

“Suppose one of you wants to build a tower. Won’t you first sit down and estimate the cost to see if you have enough money to complete it?” (Luke 14:28, NIV)

He was talking about the cost of following him. But the principle holds for every serious covenant. Many people marry by drift — because “it was time,” because family pushed, because they were already living together and it seemed like the natural next step. Then the first real storm hits, and they realize they never sat down to count the cost.

Counting the cost isn’t being afraid of marriage. It’s walking in knowing that love is not just a feeling: it’s a decision, repeated every day, especially on the days the feeling fails.

If you’re already married, this is for you too. You can start again on purpose today. You don’t have to wait for a crisis to sit down with your spouse and ask, “What kind of marriage are we building? And what will it cost each of us?”

The crisis that didn’t break as many marriages

The detail that moved me most was a different one: the divorce wave so many experts predicted after the pandemic did not happen nationally. Couples locked at home, afraid, with tight budgets and kids in school through a screen — and, taken together, they did not split up in the numbers people expected.

The Pew Research Center researcher quoted by Axios is careful: no one can know for sure what the numbers would have looked like without the pandemic. I respect that caution. But let me draw a pastoral lesson without stretching the statistic: a crisis is not a verdict. Pressure reveals what’s inside a marriage, but it doesn’t get to write the ending on its own.

I used to be the problem in my marriage. I know what it’s like to look at a crisis and believe it has the final word. It doesn’t. Vanessa Lima gave God a chance, and the trust between us was rebuilt brick by brick. It wasn’t magic, and it wasn’t fast. But it was real.

Three questions to ask at home this week

Good news only matters if it turns into action. So instead of just commenting on a chart, here are three questions to talk through with your spouse:

1. Why did we get married — and why do we stay? Not the pretty answer from the wedding invitation. Today’s answer. If it feels weak, that’s not the end; it’s a starting point.

2. Where are we living on autopilot? Drift is what kills marriages slowly. Routine without conversation, sex without connection, faith without praying together. Pick one area to take off autopilot.

3. Who is the third strand of this cord? “A cord of three strands is not quickly broken” (Ecclesiastes 4:12, NIV). A marriage with Christ at the center isn’t immune to crisis, but it has something to hold on to when the crisis comes.

What God has joined

Statistics go up and down. Marriage rates shift with the economy, the culture, a pandemic. But Jesus’ words about marriage don’t fluctuate:

“So they are no longer two, but one flesh. Therefore what God has joined together, let no one separate.” (Matthew 19:6, NIV)

I’m glad when the numbers improve. But my prayer is that your marriage doesn’t depend on the national average. That it stands firm because it was built on purpose, because you counted the cost and decided to pay it, and because Christ is at the center.

If you feel your marriage is closer to becoming a statistic than a testimony, don’t carry that alone. Talk to your pastor, get professional help when you need it — and come walk with Vanessa and me on our YouTube channel and Instagram, where we talk every week about rebuilding marriages with Christ at the center.